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A new study published in The Lancet reveals four out of five men and women in the United States will be overweight or obese by 2050 if current trends persist. The research estimates that by then, around 213 million adults aged 25 and older, along with over 45 million children and young adults aged 5 to 24, will struggle with excess weight.

What’s more concerning is that the rate of obesity, as opposed to being merely overweight, is expected to climb more rapidly. By mid-century, two-thirds of adults, one-third of teenagers, and one-fifth of children in the United States are anticipated to be obese.

These statistics point to a crisis of chronic illnesses across the nation. According to lead author Emmanuela Gakidou, a professor at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, obesity is linked to a range of severe health conditions.

“Overweight and obesity can trigger serious health conditions, including diabetes, heart attacks, stroke, cancer, mental health disorders, and even premature death,” Gakidou explained in a journal release. “The soaring health system and economic costs will be equally pervasive, with over 260 million Americans, including more than half of all children and adolescents, living with overweight or obesity by 2050.”

Researchers used 134 data sources, including national surveillance surveys, to predict future obesity trends. In 2021, nearly three-quarters of U.S. adults were overweight or obese. Obesity rates have skyrocketed since 1990, doubling in both men (19 per cent to 42 per cent) and women (23 per cent to 46 per cent).

The South is expected to remain the hardest-hit region, with some of the highest obesity levels nationwide. For instance, by 2050, two-thirds of men in West Virginia and Kentucky, as well as two-thirds of women across 12 states, are predicted to be obese. Mississippi, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Illinois are forecasted to have especially high rates.

The study also highlights a troubling trend: Americans are becoming obese at younger ages. For example, two in five women born in the 1960s were obese by age 45, while the same proportion among women born in the 1980s became obese by age 30.

Adolescent obesity rates more than doubled between 1990 and 2021, jumping from 9 per cent to 23 per cent in boys and from 10 per cent to 29 per cent in girls. By 2050, an additional 3.3 million children and teens, along with 3.4 million young adults, are expected to be overweight or obese.

States like Oklahoma, Mississippi, and West Virginia are predicted to have the highest obesity rates among young men, while Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alabama are expected to see at least half of young women living with obesity. However, California and Texas will have the largest numbers of obese young adults, with 1.53 million and 1.49 million, respectively.

While medications such as Wegovy and Zepbound offer hope for some, they are far from a universal solution, the researchers emphasize. Co-author Marie Ng, an affiliate associate professor at IHME, stressed that anti-obesity drugs alone cannot reverse the growing epidemic.

“Above all, reversing the U.S. obesity epidemic will rely on government-supported programs,” Gakidou added. These programs must focus on increasing physical activity, promoting safe and walkable neighbourhoods, ensuring access to healthy food for children, regulating the food industry, and adopting environmentally sustainable food systems.

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